← NA Nationals 2025

Wind Luxem ZanderTier 1

at NA Nationals 2025

decks
11 (5.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
105 56-37-12
overall winrate
59.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.3% avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
56.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1464 · median 1423 · range 1237–1736 (11 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083 Q1 1311 Q3 1469 1750
45% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 18% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 26.2% 33 14-13-6 51.5% 51.4% 50.2% +0.1
Fire Aggro 11.4% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 54.4% +2.3
Water Genbu 10.0% 20 6-12-2 35.0% 37.5% 36.2% -5.3
Wind Shadowstrike 6.2% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 39.3% -6.1
Fire Luxem Assassin 4.8% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 66.9% +10.8
Wind Astra Cleric 4.8% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 64.8% +11.1
Wind Allies 4.3% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 67.8% +13.3
Wind Crux Lorraine 3.8% 7 7-0-0 100.0% 81.8% 82.1% +16.1
Wind Seiryuu 3.8% 5 4-0-1 90.0% 72.2% 72.9% +13.2
Fire Suzaku 2.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 66.6% +26.6
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.1% +17.8
Water Allies 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.2% +18.0
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.0% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.9% -16.2
Water Crux Lorraine 1.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 68.1% +17.4
Water Crux Mage 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.5% +21.6
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.1% -12.6
Fire Crux Mage 0.5% 0
Fire Exia Jin 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.0% -15.9
Fire Kongming 0.5% 0
Seiryuu 0.5% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 47.6% -3.8
Water Kongming 0.5% 0
Water Neos 0.5% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 0.5% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 42.6% -7.1
Water Seiryuu 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 65.1% +24.2
Water Tera Cleric 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.1% +6.6
Water Tera Kongming 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.1% -17.4
Wind Arcane 0.5% 0
Wind Byakko 0.5% 0
Wind Crux Mage 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.8% +10.9
Wind Exia 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 35.7% -22.9
Wind Lorraine 0.5% 0
Wind Overlord 0.5% 0
Wind Razorgale 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.5% +8.8
Wind Slice & Dice 0.5% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.2% -20.4
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Cleansing Reunion. Losers more often ran: Stifling Trap, Scout the Land, Heavenly Guide.

Played more by winners
Cleansing Reunion
Winning decks ran 1.2 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.
Played more by losers
Stifling Trap
Losing decks ran 2.6 copies on average, winning decks 2.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.
Scout the Land
Losing decks ran 1.4 copies on average, winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Heavenly Guide
Losing decks ran 1.6 copies on average, winning decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Cleansing Reunion +0.60 3 0 0
Stifling Trap -0.60 0 3 2
Diablerie +0.40 2 0 0
Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace +0.40 2 0 1
Veiling Breeze +0.40 2 0 3
Mystic Purifier -0.40 0 2 3
Beseech the Winds -0.40 0 2 2
Uncover the Plot -0.20 0 1 0
Scout the Land -0.20 1 2 2
Heavenly Guide -0.20 1 2 2
Gleaming Cut -0.20 0 1 0
Luxem Sight -0.20 0 1 4
Striking Illuminance -0.20 0 1 0
Sadi, Blood Harvester +0.20 1 0 4
Nullifying Mirror +0.20 1 0 2
Sirocco Operative -0.20 0 1 4
Censer of Restful Peace -0.20 0 1 0
Unbroken Mustang +0.20 1 0 0
Staggering Strike +0.20 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.20 1 0 0
Cry for Help +0.20 1 0 0
Aesan Protector +0.00 1 1 3
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.00 1 1 3
Slice and Dice +0.00 1 1 3
Nullifying Lantern +0.00 1 1 0
Turbo Charge +0.00 1 1 3
Verdigris Decree +0.00 2 2 1
Crystallized Destiny +0.00 1 1 0
Swift Recruit +0.00 1 1 3
Incapacitate +0.00 2 2 1
Poisoned Dagger +0.00 1 1 3
Art of War +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/25810/archetypes/Wind Luxem Zander